Eurovision 2015: Who is @ThoroughlyGood’s (current) winner?

No-one should refer to themselves in the third person, of course. But the title of this post is necessary for those people searching on the interweb. The first of four, yes four, posts which I’m hoping will show how difficult it is to predict who the winner of Eurovision is and how things like TV presentation can drastically effect the outcome – or, at least, audience perception. 

After an unexpected flurry of traffic to the blog post I published last week investigating whether or not YouTube stats could give an indication of who might win this year’s Eurovision, I’ve turned my attentions to my own (overdue) homework.

At the time of writing this, I’ve now completed my own initial investigations, captured my subjective view and scored everything and everyone within an inch of their lives. As any obsessive Eurovision fan will tell you, this kind of attention to detail is a necessary part of the process we all happily sign-up to at this important time of year.

The results (for the final) are below. I’ve included a PDF of all my working-out here.

Real surprises as I listened included Israel (its annoying as a song on its own, but surprisingly uplifting when I come to watch the video), Cyprus (beautifully simple melody with a pleasing chord progression towards the end of the chorus), Moldova (I really like it – classic present-day Eurovision) and Australia (which I think could land really well in the final votes). I make no apology for the UK’s final ranking – I’m a avid/rabid supporter of our song. That said, I did think very carefully and look for ways of marking us down in a desperate way to illustrate objectivity.

For those interested in the process I adopted, here’s what I did:

1. Listen to all the songs on Spotify. Marked everything out of ten depending on to what extent each song was holding my attention. I confess there were some I just jumped through when I realised I had lost interest.

2. Watched all of the videos on the Eurovision channel to see how each country’s presentation changed my view of the song. Some videos transformed otherwise dull affairs. Others (mostly off-air captures of studio-bound performances) actually detracted from what had originally sounded like a good song.

3. Marked each act out of ten for ‘potential’. This is a difficult one to judge, one largely based on instinct. It’s there to show those songs/acts which could either be transformed by a compelling stage act/TV direction or be ruined by the stage performance not quite meeting the mark.

Unlike the YouTube stats data I published last weekend, this one was a little more difficult to give a wide spread of marks. Consequently, there’s a lot of bunching up in the present tally making it difficult to determine exactly who’s in number one place. Expect to see that change considerably when the marks go in following the next bout of chilling judgements – the rehearsals/jury final for each Semi-Final show in the third week of May.

Country Song Video Potential Total
Final Italy 8 8 7 23
SF1 Belgium 7 9 6 22
SF1 Albania 6 9 7 22
Final UK 8 8 5 21
SF1 Romania 7 8 6 21
SF2 Poland 7 7 7 21
Final Australia 9 4 7 20
Final Spain 6 8 6 20
SF1 Moldova 7 7 6 20
SF1 FYR Macedonia 6 9 5 20
SF1 Hungary 8 7 5 20
SF2 Sweden 10 3 7 20
SF2 Cyprus 8 5 7 20
SF1 Russia 8 6 5 19
SF2 Israel 2 8 8 18
SF2 Iceland 4 7 7 18
Final Germany 7 3 7 17
SF1 Georgia 7 6 4 17
SF2 Azerbaijan 7 5 5 17
SF1 Finland 1 7 8 16
SF1 Serbia 5 8 3 16
SF2 Lithuania 8 3 5 16
SF2 Ireland 7 5 4 16
SF2 Norway 4 7 5 16
SF2 Latvia 7 3 6 16
Final France 7 4 4 15
Final Austria 7 3 3 13

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